Two years after this prediction is becoming a reality, today many mobile browsers support AJAX, the list is impressive:

Opera Mini 4, Opera Mobile 8.6, NetFront 3.5, Minimo 0.2, IE Mobile 6 (Windows Mobile 6), iPhone/iPod Touch, Android, S60WebKit (S60 3rd of Nokia phones), Iris 1.0.8 and QtWebKit embedded (Qt 4.4).

Some frameworks like [http://www.itsnat.org ItsNat] are exploiting this capability to bring the web 2.0 to the mobile world avoiding the tedious page to page navigation.

Mobile AJAX has a lot of potential, but faces the same limitations as every other mobile technology - mobile operator control of the end product.

In most markets, operators subsidize devices in order to spur demand through lower up-front prices of ever more capable handsets. In order to justify this subsidy, operators often resort to locking down not only the SIM slot, but also the application registry and execution environment. They do this so that on;y operator-approved apps can run, and developers have to pay the hefty operator toll in order to get their apps certified.

Opera may offer a decent mobile browser, but if mobile web apps running in Opera began to "leak revenue" through consumer uptake on apps/services not offered by the operator, operators will lock these devices down in order to reduce their subscriber's ability to install Opera (or equivalent).

Mobile phones aren't like PCs - the technology may be similar, but the business and channel model is fundamentally more complex and restricted for phones.

Unless operators can be sold on a story that enables them to monetize incrementally more of the data traffic, or their chokehold on control over the hw+sw+service offering can be loosened, mobile AJAX will remain a technology with a lot of unfilled potential.

j

Recently, Opera announced the availability of AJAX on mobile devices through their browser. Considering the popularity of Opera in the browser market (especially in the mobile browser market), this announcement is indeed very significant. Having been involved in creating mobile services for a few years now, Ajit Jaokar believes AJAX will replace both Java ME and XHTML as the platform of choice for developing mobile applications.

Hello enrique, Thomas
Just to let you know that I have not forgotten about the updated response. Its coming - hopefully in the next two weeks. Kind rgds Ajit

Recently, Opera announced the availability of AJAX on mobile devices through their browser. Considering the popularity of Opera in the browser market (especially in the mobile browser market), this announcement is indeed very significant. Having been involved in creating mobile services for a few years now, Ajit Jaokar believes AJAX will replace both Java ME and XHTML as the platform of choice for developing mobile applications.

ahh .. but .. are they all not behind Java already :) Except for the BREW crowd .. I dont know of any other entity(operator/device manufacturer - NOT supporting Java) .. and thats the irony. I will address the gaming etc issues in the updated article kind rgds Ajit

Ajit, a lot of work has been happening over the last year to minimize fragmentation. This is done via MSA and MIDP3. Not only on the APIs but the TCKs. The fragmentation issue is not the technology, or SUN, but the implementers of the technology. And Google will not fix that either. The issue has been implementers not following the spec. Maybe due to lack of clarification, but that is what MSA and MIDP3 will address. This has long been recognized, but it is a slow process - that is the nature of having many vendors, a community, involved - that is the price we pay. As you said, this is not inherently to J2ME, the same thing may happen in AJAX. Not to mention, brower-based technology is not for sufficient for gaming.

Java ME will come strong, very strong -- all the major handset manufacturers and carriers are behind it.

ceo

Interesting!
from ..
http://www.mobile-ent.biz/newsitem.php?id=782

Its the 'hundreds of times' which is significant.
>>>>
At present, mobile games development is hamstrung by the fact that one game needs to be tweaked potentially hundreds of times for different handsets. These devices all implement Java differently and have a variety of screen sizes, keyboard lay-outs and user interfaces. The cost and time implications are enormous.
>>>>
However, like I said, the problem is not inherently due to J2ME - but unfortunately - the solution is not with Sun either. I think they have ignored this for too long and now the technological leadership mantle has passed away from Sun to google et al ..

Kind rgds
Ajit

thanks Thomas. Let me know and I shall include the figures in update of the article. kind rgds Ajit

Ajit,

I will provide you some more accurate porting cost based on our experience. The original article, made by the CEO of a porting company, obviously put higher costs in order to sell his porting services.
Also, I do not think I take the technical approach only. As I said, your raise the good questions and issues (business models, cost of fragmentation, etc...), but you put a technical solution (Ajax) as "the" answer...
And believe me, everybody in this industry is trying to find soutions to reduce complexity. But there is always a technical shift which creates new fragmentation (exemple: alternate technologies, like FlashLite, or MobileBrowsing, video, 3D on mobile, bluetooth, nfc, or new business models, etc...) Every new techno increase fragmenation. But monthes -or years- after, situation become better for these techno but in the meantime, new ones have appears... It's a never ending story.

Games is a very specific exemple, but more generally, multimedia app are quite complex to do regarding fragmentation.

I think critical mass for J2me is here. So what prevent others app to emerge? Business model? Demands? Creativity? Technical issues?
Does the reach of critical mass for another techno will make things better? Why?

(and lastly, as a service provider, we are technology agnostic. We are providing games or services on brew, java, iMode, Flash, etc... So do not take my comment as a "Java supporter" approach)

thanks Enrique ..
A note for thomas ..
I have not yet figured out how to stop comment spam from my blog. Hence, comments are generally switched off

also ..
re the porting figures I quoted .. I also referrred a source. I am not an expert in games porting. If you know better figures, let me know and I shall be happy to consider them and quote you as source.

However, a thrieving industry undeniably exists in game porting .. so .. figures aside - the principle is valid - in the sense that it should be relatively cheap to ensure that the game run across devices and across operators. In fact, companies like babel media derieve a significant part of their income from ensuring that games conform to standards(set by publishers and operators).

I am sure you know this - being CTO of in-fusio. anyway .. as I said .. more soon .. including your comment on games
Kind rgds
Ajit

Thanks for the link. As I've said, I understand the potential of AJAX. Thin clients with rich(er) UIs and thus richer experience will happen. It is just the idea that it will displace local clients what I am arguing against. Because there are times when thin is all it is needed, and times when rich/smart clients are needed. That's all! Both are and will be complimentary... There are another aspects why connected smart clients have taken long to happen... I'll cover those later on. Thanks for your thoughts and comments.
ceo

as I write .. I note a breaking story !!
http://jdj.sys-con.com/read/177620_1.htm
(IBMs support of OpenAjax but Sun not a part of it). I am not clear about the full implications of this story but am following it with great interest.

One of my key points I was writing about in response to your queries is .. technology often morphs depending on industry support. Take the humble old 'SQL'. Every vendor(such as Sybase, Informix etc) - introduced a procedural version of SQL(PLSQL in case of Oracle). SQL and PLSQL are contradiction in terms because SQL is set based(and thus by definition not procedural) whereas PLSQL is procedural. However, it happened because there was an industry demand(read developer support) behind it. To get developer support you need some sort of mass market. Thats not happening at the moment.

Sun is good at creating buzz .. but that does not translate into dollars and as Jerry Mc guire says 'Show me the money!' http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0116695/

and there are few making any on mobile apps ..

Yes, mobile Games are an industry .. but thats the point .. Games are an extension of the traditional broadcast media(and even there profitability is driven by brand support). Witness recent take over games in the mobile gaming industry.

The irony is .. we see little OTHER than games!!

If WORA were true .. we would have a raft of applications(not games) .. and sadly we dont ..

BUT ..
Three things are likely to make a big impact
a) The level of abstraction is shifting to the browser(hence cross operator and driven by players like Opera and Google) since a browser can be downloaded and updated

b) AJAX is making the browser experience better

c) Developers are supporting AJAX on the web and by extension the mobile web

plus ..
Industry heavyweights are shifting their support to AJAX(see announcement)

Lots more to say(Thomas raises the question of games for example).

By the way, I appretiate your comments and both of you will be on my blogroll in the next hour or so

I trust you appretiate that my comments are not off the cuff. I have genuinely spent a few years working with grass roots developers and know the issues first hand. Also, I have no affiliations - just the desire to create an open/cross platform ecosystem. My views on openness in the mobile data industry are well known
(and I am used to getting a lot of flak for those :) )
Kind rgds
Ajit

thanks. Lets swap notes when we do. Like I said, I have also been working with mobile apps for a few years now and the biggest problem I find is - the lack of a critical mass. My view is - if a company like Opera - creates a compelling platform through Ajax and that platform can be accessed cross operator and furthur - it can be updated via a browser just like on the web - it does overcome the problem of critical mass.

The fragmentation occurs not just from a specific software version of a platform but also because operators and device manufacturers can choose to implemenet it differently. With a browser(cross operator becasuse it can be downloaded and updated on any smartphone), the mobile application is driven via the web. Thats a powerful proposition and one which many develeopers sorely miss at the moment. .. anyway .. more soon and I look forward to your comments. I am adding you to my personal blog blogroll.
kind rgds
Ajit

Ajit, please note that you are talking techy too, the moment you brought up rich vs. thin clients, and fragmentation, and how it affects development. This topic is inherently techy -- it is just the way it is... Note that this is not a new topic -- I've been dealing with it for years now.

Yet, the market is still very young -- believe me, you should not discount anything yet.

If time permits, I'll also write/expand on this topic on my blog...

Cheers,
ceo